Valve’s Minimum Estimated Revenue

What data sources are used to calculate the estimates?

The revenue estimates are calculated using publicly available community data. The following sources are used:

• CSFloat — Used to estimate the number of existing skins and the number of charms applied to skins.
• CS2 Sticker Application Tracker — Used to determine how many stickers have been applied to skins.
• CSGOSKINS — Used to estimate the number of items currently listed across public marketplaces.
• CSROI — Used to obtain the estimated drop probabilities for items from cases and collections.

These data sources are combined to produce a conservative minimum revenue estimate. Since Valve does not publish official sales figures, the actual revenue is likely higher.

How accurate are the estimates?

The accuracy of the estimates depends on the type of item being analyzed. Since Valve does not publish official data, every figure should be considered a conservative minimum estimate based on publicly available information.

• Weapon collections and limited-time items — Estimates are based on items found in public inventories. Items stored in private Steam inventories cannot be accessed and are therefore not included, meaning the actual totals are likely higher.
• Charms and stickers — The estimates are based on the number of items applied to weapons and the number currently listed across public marketplaces. Unlike weapon skins, there is no comprehensive public database that tracks every existing charm or sticker in public inventories.
• Cases — Estimates are based only on the number of cases redeemed and opened. There is no reliable way to determine how many unopened cases remain in either public or private inventories. As a result, only the items generated from opened cases can be used to estimate the minimum number of case openings.

Overall, these limitations mean that the calculated values represent the minimum amount of revenue Valve is estimated to have earned. The actual figures are likely higher.

How are the estimates calculated for each collection?

The estimates are based on the relationship between the number of existing items and their estimated drop rates. By combining these two values, it is possible to estimate the minimum number of times a case or collection must have been opened to produce the observed supply.

For weapon collections, the calculation is based on a Covert skin, as it provides the most reliable estimate for total openings.

For charms and stickers, the estimate combines:

• The number of items applied to weapons.
• The number of items currently listed across public marketplaces.

Unlike weapon skins, there is no comprehensive public database that tracks every existing charm or sticker across public Steam inventories. Combining applied and marketplace-listed items provides the closest available minimum estimate.

The formula used is:

Once the minimum number of openings has been estimated, the minimum revenue is calculated using the cost required to open each collection.

For collections, the minimum revenue is calculated by multiplying the estimated number of openings by the number of stars required to redeem the collection and the price per star.

Formula:

For cases, the calculation also includes the cost of the key required to open each case.

Revenue from redeeming the case:

Total minimum revenue:

This methodology provides a conservative minimum estimate of the revenue generated by each collection. Since Valve does not publish official sales figures and some items cannot be fully tracked, the actual revenue is likely higher.